The federal government's new inflation estimate is an adjustment to the INSS retirement of 6% in the year 2023. The INPC (National Consumer Price Index), used to correct salaries and benefits in the country, should close 2022 lower than it was previously predicted.

Despite the forecast, the final index should only be applied on January 10, 2023, when IBGE releases inflation for the year 2022. Based on the expected adjustment of 6%, the INSS ceiling could reach the value of R$ 7,512.45 .

Meanwhile, the minimum wage would be R$ 1,302 with inflation being applied at 6%. Added to a real increase of 1.3% or 1.4% estimated by the Lula government's transition team, the national minimum next year could be R$ 1,320.

Furthermore, the Ministry of Economy reduced the GDP forecast for 2023 to 2.1% from the previous forecast of 2.5%.

If the increase in 6% is confirmed, the INSS pension values must be as follows:

It is worth mentioning that the inflation estimate in August was 7.41%. Thus, the INSS ceiling in 2023 would be R$ 7,612.38. The minimum wage was set at R$ 1,302, the same amount that must be paid to insured people who receive the minimum social security benefits.

In other words, retirements, pensions, benefits and the BPC aimed at people with disabilities and the elderly with an income of up to 1/4 of the minimum wage per person in the family.

Because of the fuel subsidy that the government offered before the elections through the PEC Kamikaze, Brazil experienced three consecutive months of deflation: July, August and September. However, the index rose again in October, and the trend is also upward in December. 

In 2023, the policy of increasing the minimum wage should come into effect again, as occurred between 2006 and 2019. The previous rule considered inflation plus GDP from two years before. Now it is proposed to calculate the average GDP for the last 5 years.

The adjustment above inflation was implemented by Lula, and it was Dilma Rousseff who turned it into law that lasted until 2019. After Bolsonaro's election, he put an end to the appreciation.

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