Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) won the presidential elections last Sunday, the 30th. With the victory, one of his campaign proposals was the restoration of the Bolsa Família program, which current president Jair Bolsonaro (PL) transformed into Auxílio Brazil. But now, which of the programs should remain in 2023?

Currently, the Federal Government transfers R$ 600 per month to beneficiaries of the social program – there are currently 21 million beneficiaries. The amount was only possible with the approval of the PEC on Benefits by the National Congress in July 2022. Thus, the benefit had an additional R$ 200, which will be paid by December of this year. 

Therefore, in 2023 the forecast is that the Aid will return to R$ 400 per month. But, in addition to the intention of maintaining the value of R$ 600, Lula also mentioned the creation of an extra benefit of R$ 150 per child for families with children of up to 6 years of age. Where will the resources be taken from? Still an unknown.

To guarantee the value of R$ 750 from Bolsa Família (plus the fixed and additional benefit per child), Lula must enter into negotiations with the National Congress to approve a new PEC – Proposed Amendment to the Constitution, and only then execute the change in 2023 .

The value would be the same as Emergency Aid, which was paid between 2020 and 2021 by the Government during the Coronavirus pandemic period, when the country's economy was affected by isolation measures.

Taking into account the total value of the benefit until October 2021, approximately R$ 360 billion was injected into the economy. During the pandemic alone, in 2020, 9 times the annual budget of the old Bolsa Família was distributed.

According to projections by the CNC (National Confederation of Commerce in Goods, Services and Tourism), retail should benefit from around 40% of the R$ 600 of aid this year. The remainder must be used to pay debts and for the services sector.

The value of R$ 600 of Auxílio Brasil costs around R$ 150 billion annually to be financed from the Union's coffers. 

The PLOA (Annual Budget Bill) sent by the National Congress does not mention the current value, which is temporarily valid, but rather the fixed value of R$ 400.

“In fact, we don't really know what we will find on January 1st in the case of the election of former president Lula. We do not know the real budget situation. Priority zero will be to find resources to guarantee the value of R$ 600. After that, we propose a phased project“, explained Campello.

In November 2021, the Bolsa Família income transfer program was replaced by the current Auxílio Brasil, in which Bolsonaro wanted “put an end to any trace of the PT”. But now with the victory, Lula must return to the old program he created during his first term.

The traditional Bolsa Família program was created in 2004 during the Lula government and was replaced after 18 years of operation. The program aims to guarantee food for families living in poverty and extreme poverty in the country.

In 2016, the minimum wage was R$ 880 and there were 13.8 million families receiving Bolsa Família and 11.3 million unemployed people in the country. 

In the month of October 2022, there are already 21.13 million families that received Auxílio Brasil, where there are 9.7 million unemployed. The current value of the minimum wage is R$ 1,212 and should be adjusted to 7% this year, the inflation index measured by the INPC.

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