According to the annual budget for 2023 presented to the National Congress last Wednesday (31), the INSS (National Social Security Institute) pension ceiling and other benefits may increase from R$ 7,087.22 to 7,612.38 in the year 2023, following the inflation forecast of 7.41% for 2022.

In the budget piece, the federal government estimates that the minimum wage will be R$ 1,302, the same amount paid to those who receive pensions, benefits and BPC. These are the beneficiaries who receive the minimum value of social security benefits.

The adjusted values will only come into force in January of next year, when the IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics) releases the official inflation for the year. 

The basis for calculating social security benefits is the INPC (National Consumer Price Index) of the previous year. In 2022, the government announced the final adjustment on January 20.

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The government is forecasting inflation at 7.41% this year. Even with the drop in the index predicted by experts, the evolution of prices between the LDO (Budget Directive Law) and the Budget Law did not change. 

Counting from July 2021 to July 2022, IBGE states that the INPC is still at 10.12%. In comparison with May this year, the index showed deflation of 0.60% in July, due to the drop in fuel prices after the cut in the ICMS (Tax on the Circulation of Goods and Services).

The INPC, which represents inflation among low-income citizens, was the lowest since its creation in April 1979.

Like the minimum wage, the minimum wage for INSS beneficiaries has not been adjusted in real terms since 2019, when the government raised the minimum wage due to a forecast of higher inflation. 

In the end, however, the index was lower than expected. But there was nothing more to do, as the amount was already being used to correct retirees.

The INSS has 36 million retirees and pensioners and the difference in public accounts for 2023 will be around R$ 245 billion, accounting only for the private sector – excluding the portion of public servants who will have a deficit exceeding R$ 45 billion, according to the government. This is the difference between Social Security deposits and withdrawals.

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